The dupes apocalypse
Did Trump just kill the US's supply of dupes? Plus: How Ferrari turbocharged its profits, and the owner of De Beers looks for a way out

The biggest stories this week in luxury are about Trump’s radical changes to trade, Ferrari’s soaring profits, and why De Beers’s owner is trying to find a way out. But first, a big welcome to those of you who have joined from luxury fashion commentator Cassie Thorpe, who has recently joined Substack.
Her latest video is all about handbags as an asset class, a fascinating topic which we’ll also be looking into soon. And another welcome to our readers from Jing Daily, who have republished our exclusive story about how Chinese smugglers get their hands on Louis Vuitton handbags. (A good reminder that our paid subscribers get these stories before anyone else.)
Trade, tariffs and Chinese parcels
Trump’s closure of the “de minimis” loophole is already affecting the shipping of millions of products between the US and China this week. When we started writing this email, the US Postal Service said it would temporarily suspend all parcels from China and Hong Kong heading to the US in response to the announcement. By the time we were finishing it, it had reversed that decision.
Latin for “trifling matters,” de minimis is a legal rule where goods shipped to the US with a value under $800 are exempt from import taxes, per person, per day. This rule change will affect about 80 per cent of all e-commerce orders shipped into America. Over 10 years, the number of packages arriving in the US under de minimis has soared from about 140 million to well over one billion a year. Chinese exports to the US of these low value packages are now $66 billion in 2023, up from $5.3 billion in 2018, according to the Congressional Research Service.
Fast fashion retailers Shein and Temu are the big winners of this rule, and between them they are estimated to be responsible for about a third of these packages, paying no tariffs or import duties on those shipments. Meanwhile, rivals H&M and Gap are estimated to have spent $205 million and $700 million respectively, in 2022. US manufacturers who have been lobbying for the change hope that it will result in more on-shore making of luxury goods in the US.
Any buyers of legitimate luxury goods made in China being shipped directly to the US using de minimis will immediately be impacted by this change, and goods could be subject to import tariffs varying between 0 per cent and 37.5 per cent, according to DHL.
That’ll have an immediate impact on US luxury customers buying from Canadian brand Aritzia, and Canada’s SSense, an e-commerce site which stocks brands like Dries Van Noten and Chloé. You can still buy a lot of stuff for $800.
The dupes apocalypse?
It’ll also have a huge impact on the shipping of “duped” and fake luxury goods. We saw how popular goods like the infamous Walmart “Birkin” are, and millions of consumers have got used to the idea of buying products like this in bulk and sharing their experience on TikTok. That includes more explicitly fake items from Chinese distributors such as Pandabuy and DHGate. These fakes and dupes will now be subject to import taxes, and in theory, they’ll also be subject to much closer checks by customs officials.
In reality, the scale of the trade is so large that this is likely to require a massive increase in the number of customs officials to check them. Which might explain why the US Postal Service said it had decided to just shut down all shipments instead (before saying it wouldn’t).
It is estimated that the ending of the loophole will result in increased costs of between $11 billion to $13 billion for American consumers, who are the ones who will end up paying the increased tariffs.
Unintended consequences?
It doesn’t end there, and the consequences could spill over into Big Tech. Almost 12 per cent of Meta’s global earnings now come from China, where earnings have soaring 148 per cent in the past two years, dwarfing growth in the US (+26.4 per cent) and Europe (+43.9 per cent).
Meta doesn’t disclose what is driving that growth, but it’s likely that a sizable chunk of the advertising money flowing to Meta in the US from China is coming from Temu, Shein, and perhaps platforms such as Pandabuy and DHGate.
We bet you’d never thought you’d see trade war menswear memes. But that’s where we are over on the Throwing Fits Instagram account.
Ferrari borrows from luxury fashion and accessories
Luxury cars are not often talked about or reported on in the same context of the wider luxury fashion and accessories market, but they should be.
The world of luxury cars often reflects what’s going on more broadly in the economy and how the super wealthy are spending their money. The industry is also increasingly borrowing tactics from fashion and leather goods sectors, offering more personalisation and an even more upmarket – and expensive – product and brand positioning, in order to drive growth.
Ferrari is a good case in point. On its earnings call yesterday afternoon, the Italian supercar maker announced a 31 per cent increase in net profits to €386 million for the three months to December 2024. Revenues also rose 14 per cent to €1.7 billion — resulting in its highest revenue per shipment.
Couture cars: Selling less to make more money
Customers paying for personalised features in their new Ferrari, adding tens or even hundreds of thousands on top of the price of their car, have been a big driver of profits in recent years. In October, Ferrari also launched a €3.6 million F80 supercar, which was fully pre-allocated to collectors.
“A 31 per cent increase in profits off the back of just 1 per cent increase in sales volume means that it looks like they’re selling pretty much the same amount of cars only for a lot more money,’’ said James Warren at Story & Image, a consultant for leading luxury car brands.
“That's going to be driven by what's going on in the speccing rooms. They're getting increasingly good at adding value to the cars that they're selling with personalisation offers,” he said.
“Ferrari is a business that very much operates like a luxury brand,” says Warren. “They nurture incredibly strong relationships with their clients and that means those clients become quite sophisticated purchasers of their products, and therefore like to indulge themselves with all of the possibilities available within that brand stable. And what does that mean? It means bigger ticket prices for those transactions,” he said.
In short, this most luxurious of “hard” luxury products has prospered by going even further upmarket. This reflects what Aston Martin hopes to achieve with the forthcoming Valkyrie and Valhalla “hyper car”. Meanwhile, Rolls-Royce also had a record year for its bespoke business.
Ferrari forecast that its earnings would continue to rise this year, expecting 29 per cent or higher in adjusted operating profit margin. Its shares rallied more than 9 per cent on Tuesday.
Just like in the regular economy, luxury is splitting into two extremes. Walmart Birkin dupes at one end and a custom Ferrari at the other. The booming market for high spec super cars reflects a broader trend in which “hard luxury” such as watches and jewelry can be personalised with seemingly no limit on expense, designed for an increasing number of customers for whom money is no object. This helped Richemont — which owns Cartier and Van Cleef and Arpels — get out of its rut and of course, Ferrari.
Key luxury earnings dates in luxury
Tuesday 11 February - Kering (Gucci, YSL, Bottega Veneta)
Wednesday 12 February - EssilorLuxottica (Ray-Ban)
Tuesday 14 February - Hermès
Everything else we’ve seen in dark luxury this week
Jewellery from Cartier's two most iconic — and bestselling — collections are being copied on an almost industrial scale, and Richemont is fighting back, according to Glitz.Paris. Last month a Marseille court found a boutique in the port city guilty of selling counterfeit goods, after it was caught offering imitations of Cartier's “Love” and “Juste Un Clou” collections. The Richemont-owned brand is facing a flood of fakes of these lines. (Glitz.Paris)
Mulberry is refocusing on British consumers and building a digital presence in the US at the expense of its China presence. It’s also aiming to target lower price points, says its CEO Andrea Baldo. Its larger rival Burberry is also focusing on this “British heritage” idea. As our analysis of Burberry last month indicates, this “Make Being British Great Again” approach has to be based on more than just marketing. (Reuters)
Can fashion be inclusive without saying ‘DEI’? Trump’s decisions are affecting lots of difference industries in lots of unexpected ways. Notably, some brands such as Apple and the NFL are publicly reaffirming their commitment to the concept. Others are not-so-subtly rebranding their DEI approaches as “for everyone”. LVMH still mentioned “diversity, equity and inclusion” in its most recent annual earnings, but only in the context of its retailer Sephora. Seven other mentions were about biodiversity in the context of its wines business. (Business of Fashion)

Talking of DEI, the secret to understanding billionaire shoppers is about “understanding the individuals’s ideology, not their wealth,” says this VP at Wynn Las Vegas, who works with the ultra-wealthy. (Jing Daily)
Luxury communications is ineffective in the public sphere because the luxury market is ashamed, argues Dominique Jahn, one of our favourite recent Substack discoveries. The luxury watch marketer argues that the luxury world doesn’t believe in what it’s selling, and she provides an alternative approach through a touching story about her grandmother. (Sounds of a Gong)
De Beers has been left reeling after the $80 billion diamond market crash, according to Bloomberg. A slump in demand means that De Beers’ owner Anglo American is trying to find a way out. (Bloomberg News)
Chanel is setting its sights on the second hand market, reports Glitz.Paris. The company’s pieces such as “Timeless’ and “2.55” are consistent bestsellers on second-hand sites, and the company is trying to figure out how best to capitalise. (Glitz.Paris)
How funny that Chanel wants to capitalize! They can sell refurbished bags at a lower price. At least I know they will be real. I’ve read that the quality on their current bags is not great.