Who's right about LVMH's decline?
Financial results in the next few weeks could reveal whether Goldman Sach's positive convictions about the company are correct
In this week’s Dark Luxury news round-up
A debate about how bad things are at LVMH ahead of Q2 results
A Russian plot to destroy a high-end Mayfair restaurant
What is a luxury brand? Even the industry doesn’t agree
Who is the broker stealing stories from a luxury industry investigator?
Chinese brands chip away at European luxury titans
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Has LVMH’s share price reached rock bottom? Goldman Sachs analysts think it might have. The investment firm added LVMH to its “conviction list” for European stocks last week, telling investors to look past any bad sales data that might be coming later this month when it releases its Q2 results on 24 July.
The share price rose by five per cent after the note which said the luxury conglomerate is “a clear winner in the next luxury upcycle”, although the price has since fallen back slightly. Analyst Louise Singlehurst said any potential softness in the firm’s Q2 earnings report later this month is already “priced in” and there’s room for the share price to rise as Chinese and US luxury demand recovers in 2026. “We believe in the luxury cycle and LVMH as a winner in the next cycle, as it has been in prior ones given its scale”, according to the Goldman note.
Lauren Sherman in Puck said that Jonathan Anderson’s menswear show might have been a factor in the positive spin on the Goldman note — indeed, that appears to be mentioned along with good news about Louis Vuitton’s Beauty Business (we haven’t seen the note – we’d happily take a look if someone wants to share it.)
For his part, LVMH short seller Intern Pierre says Goldman is wrong, and says LVMH is complacent. He would say that since he’s short LVMH, but he makes a good case for incompetence over the $1 billion F1 marketing deal — how exactly did Silverstone race winner Nico Hülkenberg end up drinking Laurent Perrier?
Miss Tweed’s sources paint a more detailed picture, suggesting that LVMH is finally waking up to the “severe downturn” and is considering selling loss-making businesses within the group. Music to the ears of investors and analysts, perhaps. LVMH’s Paris-based online retail business 24S, its perfume and beauty brands, and Moët Hennessy are the primary focus of potential sales or spin-offs, according to their reporting. Meanwhile, LVMH CEO Bernard Arnault’s longtime colleague Michael Burke will become CEO and Chairman of the Americas where he’ll have to deal with trouble at Tiffany, and of course with Trump.
Tomorrow, we start to see the reality after all the analysis. The first of many second quarter results for luxury firms arrives on Thursday 10 July as Brunello Cucinelli reveals its sales figures, followed by the rest of the industry over the rest of the month.
Luxury Q2 results dates
10 July - Brunello Cucinelli (high-end fashion barometer, with sales up 10.5 per cent in Q1 2025)
16 July - Richemont (a first look at demand for hard luxury)
23 July - Moncler (pay attention to their China sales)
24 July - LVMH (the big one – will sales in fashion and leather goods decline even further and by how much, if so?)
29 July - Kering (expect further sales falls at Gucci)
30 July - Zegna, Prada and Hermès (will Hermès hold on to growth?)
31 July - Ferragamo (we’re looking for signs of a turnaround)
One thing LVMH could do to avoid annoying people is give everyone a bit more heads up about when they’re announcing their results. This year they’ve kept everyone waiting, which feels unnecessary. (Angelina Rascouët on X)
Now read our analysis on another very troubled luxury firm, Kering:
London luxury targeted by Russia’s Wagner Group
Russian billionaire Evgeny Chichvarkin, a dissident and open critic of Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine, was targeted by mercenaries working for the Wagner Group who burned down a Leyton warehouse in March last year which was supplying the Ukrainian war effort. Chichvarkin, the owner of Hedonism Wines and the HIDE restaurant nearby in London’s Mayfair, was revealed to be targeted in mobile phone evidence used in the trial of four men who worked for the group in the UK. The men plotted to burn down the restaurant and wine shop, and possibly kidnap the billionaire. (The London Standard)
Can German luxury car makers turn things around?
The German luxury car industry is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Porsche reported a six per cent sales decline in the first half of this year after a slowdown in the US market (thanks, tariffs) and weakness in China (thanks, increasingly competitive home-grown EV rivals). (Bloomberg News)
Sales are down a whopping 28 per cent in China, shifting into crisis territory, as BYD, Nio and other brands are rapidly gaining traction with more affordable models that include more features than the German brands are including. (Jing Daily)
Find out what Lamborghini dealers think of Trump’s tariffs:
Home-grown Chinese brands chip away at European luxury titans
Chinese consumers are increasingly turning to local brands, and even European jewellery brands are losing their grip. Two stories on a similar, concerning trend for European luxury goods companies. (FT and Bloomberg News)
What even is a luxury brand?
How does the luxury industry see itself, and what counts as a luxury brand? This data from the European Cultural and Creative Industries Alliance (ECCIA), which represents the six national luxury goods and creative industries organisations in Europe, is interesting because it defines automotive as the largest of the “high-end and luxury” industries by value.
The report’s authors imply that the “existing model segmentation” used by the car industry to define “luxury” cars is wrong. It says that the “luxury” segment of the automotive world is actually much smaller than the industry thinks – just €85 billion, not €260 billion. However, for the purposes of this report, they think it’s important to consider “premium” cars to allow a fairer comparison with other industries like fashion and jewellery. Hence the €579 billion total value in the chart above. Read page 17 of the report for their reasoning.
Following this argument, shouldn’t we include Apple (it sells a £389 Hermès watch strap) and Samsung (its folding phone is over £2,000 and hard to get)? And if yachts are in there, where are the private jet firms? Defining luxury is harder than you think, apparently even for the industry bodies which represent it.
This video comparison between the Lamborghini Urus SUV and its Audi equivalent, the RSQ8 Performance, says a lot about how people value luxury goods. Despite being basically the same car — same engine, same brakes, even the engine cover is interchangeable — consumers are willing to pay £55,000 more for the Lambo’s slightly different design, logo and marginally louder exhaust, according to a luxury dealer who knows their stuff. And the Lambo apparently holds its value better. What exactly is luxury? This example goes some way to explain it, we think. (CarWow)
Our story for paid subscribers about new Kering CEO Luca de Meo includes a very interesting anecdote about the creation of the Lamborghini Urus:
Other Dark Luxury news
So many people in luxury fashion are stealing Miss Tweed’s stories that they’ve had to threaten to sue their readers. And one of them reportedly paid out a substantial settlement to avoid the reputational damage of being exposed. You’ll remember Miss Tweed is one of the news organisations that Bernard Arnault banned his employees from speaking to. Clearly it hasn’t worked! (Miss Tweed)
“The man who married a journalist from Libération has a heart that secretly leans to the left”, writes Claire Bouleau in Challenges, in a fawning write-up of the CEO of Hermès, Axel Dumas. (Challenges.fr)
What links Anna Wintour’s editorial strategy for Condé Nast and Trump’s controversial plan to move everyone out of the Gaza strip? Boston Consulting Group, apparently. (FT and Glitz Paris)
Louis Pisano goes inside the fashion week black market and claims that someone is offering seats on the front row for €24,500. (Louis Pisano)
Does anyone want Jonathan Anderson’s Dior egg plate? Vogue Business here on how JW Anderson is moving into products with a “story to tell”, like teacups and honey, apparently. (Vogue Business)
Burberry got too fancy, and an American is making it more British. (WSJ)
Luxury slump? What luxury slump? Singapore’s 240,000 millionaires are spending so much money shopping that luxury sales are booming in the tiny country. (Bloomberg News)
Private jets produced more pollution than all the commercial flights departing from London’s Heathrow airport last year, Europe’s busiest airport. That’s according to a deep analysis of private jet flights by the nonprofit International Council on Clean Transportation. (Washington Post)
Did you know that Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” included a tax subsidy for private jet buyers? (Inequality.org)
Some great detail here in this Spears write-up about the purported $70 million sale of Alberto Giacometti’s Grande tête mince bronze bust, which failed to attract a single bid. (Spears)
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